March 9, 2012

2012 Chicago Cubs Season Preview

Okay, so I was going to go through this player by player, http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=chc, but it started to make me queasy just looking at all the rostered players on the same page. I don’t know if I can stomach it all at once, so I’ll just stick to some small bites, and tackle this beast a little bit at a time.  At the end of the day, the Cubs have basically already had a successful 2012 before even stepping on the field – their bad contracts are all going to get one year further towards ending, and they have a team president in Theo Epstein that will ensure that sensible, winning baseball will be part of the team culture for the first time ever. Gone are the days of old, grizzled baseball morons running the show like a country club – and gone are the days where winning is a nice-to-have, instead of a philosophy.

Pitching

Samardjiza, John Gaub, Casey Coleman, Paul Maholm - this isn’t a list of guys that the Cubs have seen enough of apparently. These guys are all still on the 40-man going into spring training. It shows the lack of depth right now in the Cubs’ minor league system that some of these names have been able to kick around this long. If the Cubs are going to do anything this season, none of these guys can contribute in any meaningful way whatsoever other than catch bullpens or shag BP.

Kerry Wood is back. Randy Wells is back. Ryan Dempster is back. The Cubs need them each to have one more good year left in them to give this staff some stability. Newcomers Travis Wood and Chris Volstad are both very promising, but time will tell as Cubs’ young talent has tended to disappoint more than surprise over 100 years. It’s likely that regime change will alter that course over time, however. Is Matt Garza ever going to put it together for a full season? Is he a legit #1?

My take is that Garza could win a Cy Young. Dempster could have one more year in him, and Kerry Wood could help mentor Travis, Chris and another young arm as they become a pretty decent staff. Volstad could do very well in a weakened NL Central. What will happen? Probably one or two of these things, not all of them.

Infield

Geovany Soto has a decision to make this year – he either loves baseball, or he loves smoking pot, drinking, and swinging early in the count. What’s been even more sad about him isn’t that he kept his torrid offensive pace up from his first full year, but that his defense doesn’t appear to be maturing much at all.  It’s a big year for Soto. If he doesn’t pull it back together like he’s capable, I think Chicago should begin thinking about another long term solution behind the plate in 2013.

Darwin Barney has really been a lucky break for the organization – no way did they see him as being their every day second baseman when they drafted him. His ability to put the ball in play and be a steady glove guy allows the Cubs to be about 3-4 games better per year than they’d be without him. More guys like Barney, who can hit great pitching as well as he hits poor pitching, would go a long way. Starlin Castro could be a star, but we will see. Expect him to make huge strides at the plate, with routine plays, and with his attitude. If not, expect Theo to trade him while the value is still through the roof.  Cubs fans will be happy to see Josh Vitters on the 40-man roster to start the season. Don’t get too excited, though, his jersey # is 61.

As for the other guys, Stewart is a guy, Baker is wildly overrated, and he’s not really even rated high. No one’s best trait can be “hit’s opposite armed fastballs really well”, that should be a prerequisite to being on the roster, not your selling point. Is there any wildcard here? I’d say it’s Adrian Cardenas – a low risk flyer that could be a huge find if he pans out, and someone no one says boo about 6 months from now if he does nothing.

Outfielders

The most all-around talent in your outfield is David DeJesus, a fun guy and a good ballplayer. The only problem is – where does he hit in this lineup? The Cubs are pretty full of guys who you could see succeeding in the 2, 6, 7 or 8 spots. Is DeJesus supposed to hit leadoff? 5th? His speed and left handed bat likely put him somewhere near the top, but it’s probably asking a bit too much.

Marlon Byrd is a good guy to have, and one of the only good contracts the old regime ever signed. The big problem out here obviously is that you have a left fielder in Alfonso Soriano that costs you more games on defense than he can win you on offense, and even if he wins you some on offense, he cannot help you against a moderately above average pitcher or better because of his horrifically long, slow swing.  If it’s so bad, why keep him in? There’s 21 million reasons, and it also doesn’t help that you really don’t have anyone else whose well acquainted with the 20 HR mark. It’s going to be tough to take a lot of pitches and work counts as a lineup when no one in the order threatens to take you deep.

As for the other guys, Johnson, Campana and others – it’s actually a good mix for situational substitutions. It might be MLB’s best situational substitution duo, if defense, bunting or stolen bases are what you need at the end of the game. You do have to be winning or close at the end of the game to need those things, however, and that’s really the challenge in finding value in these guys.

Overall

What a weak division! What a huge win for Cubs fans.  Getting Theo & company to start from scratch is the best thing that’s happened to this organization in a long time. Can this pitching staff be good enough to keep the Cubs in the race in 2012? Actually, they can. It’s tough to imagine any of these NL Central teams running away with anything. That being said, that same staff could underwhelm significantly. I’d say Dempster is a 50% chance of being done for good – his constantly crazy-wildness isn’t a fluke, it’s a trend. Garza can’t seem to buy a break, and he doesn’t make many of his own. Is Travis Wood the best big thing? We will see. There’s a lot of knowns in this lineup, however, and there’s just no way that this team is any better than barely above average on offense. If Soto tanks again, it could get ugly. The Cubs will basically win 0 games because of great defense. Byrd, Barney – you guys are going to need to share some pointers during infield-outfield drills, because everyone around you is still pretty bad with the glove. Good luck Cubbies – go get ‘em in 2013.

Forecast: 78-84, 3rd place. 

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March 4, 2012

2012 Chicago White Sox Preview

Pitchers

Dylan Axelrod

Anthony Carter

Simon Castro

Jesse Crain

John Danks

Gavin Floyd

Deunte Heath

Pedro Hernandez

Philip Humber

Gregory Infante

Nathan Jones

Charles Leesman

Jhan Marinez

Nestor Molina

Will Ohman

Jake Peavy

Jose Quintana

Addison Reed

Chris Sale

Hector Santiago

Zach Stewart

Matt Thornton

Donnie Veal

When you look at the pitchers currently on the White Sox 40-man roster, one of the first things you notice is how many young arms they have in the bunch. It’s generally a sign of one of two things – either you have a lot of talented prospects, or you have a whole lot of nothing. Interestingly enough for the White Sox, it seems they have a little bit of both.

Known commodities Gavin Floyd and John Danks are the both still 28 or younger and will take up spots near the top of the Sox rotation. When they are going well, you’ve got an enviable combo right there. Not every team has a potential combination of young starters that could reel off a few months at a time without a loss. However, White Sox fans are still waiting for that type of run to happen. Danks is the more valuable commodity – left handed, consistently in the zone, and generally dependable every time out. Worst case scenario, Danks will probably continue to slightly overthrow his natural movement and plus changeup and hover slightly over 4.00 on his ERA and pitch 200+ innings. Best case, he learns to be a younger version of Mark Buerhle with better stuff. The problem here is Floyd. Guys who dominate with the overhand curveball like he does shouldn’t have so many games where they are battered around the yard. Floyd’s biggest problem is that when he’s off, he’s crushed. He buries his team’s chance to win just as many times as he dominates and carries his team to victory. It’s tough to tell if this is something that’s physical – i.e. does his arm just get worn down occasionally with that nasty overhand hook? Or is it what is more usually speculated – simply an issue of a guy who’s not mentally tough and drifts throughout the course of 162 games? Problem for the Sox fans is, I’m not sure which explanation is better.

Humber had a great year last year, and that’s an impressive feat considering that he’s a right hander that pitches to contact. A sinker baller can succeed in US Cellular, but he needs good defense. Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham have proven to be a middle infield that can maximize the value of guys like Humber, and the White Sox will be counting on Humber’s ground balls being sucked up by the duo again this time around.

This all being said, there will be one thing that determines whether or not the Sox have a chance at having a strong rotation this year, and that’s the 22 year old arm of Chris Sale. Talk to most experts and you’ll hear the worry that his lanky arm, cross-body delivery and lower arm slot will not last the test of 30+ starts. Some are worried he is destined for elbow surgery. It’s tough to argue that his body type and arm slot are concerning, but I don’t think fans should worry about injury. If it happens, the Sox are doomed in 2012, there’s no sense in fretting about it until it does. What is more important is that Sale learns to pitch in his first year taking the rubber as a starter. He’s been a two pitch guy who’s location has been suspect. He’s never really needed to hit his spots up till this point – he’s simply needed to throw the ball over the plate. Expect teams to load the lineup with righties against Sale, and expect teams to try to make him throw his offspeed stuff for strikes. If Sale’s K/BB ratio is anywhere near 3:1, he should have a solid year and the Sox might actually surprise some teams. If Sale’s K/BB ratio is bad, however, it means a lot of these no names on the 40-man are going to see significant innings, and it means the Sox are going to have to score a lot of runs this year. Neither seem to be strong possibilities.

Catchers

Tyler Flowers

A.J. Pierzynski

It doesn’t get much worse than these two guys defensively at the MLB level. The Sox pitchers don’t work hard to hold runners on save their lefty starters, and these two guys definitely need all the help they can get holding down the running games of opposing teams. It wouldn’t matter so much if they played in another division, but playing the Twins and Royals so many times per year only exposes their lack of defensive ability behind the plate. A.J. still handles a staff well, and is still one of the few catchers in the league that has the ability to hit for average and from the left side. If last season is an indication, though, he might be about to hit the wall in 2012. It’d be surprising if he finished the year as the starter. One of the best things you can say about Flowers going into this year, was that he was actually better than expected behind the dish, though this was simply because his reputation was as being historically bad. Best case scenario: the Sox catching duo hits the heck out of the ball, Flowers showing gap & HR power all year long, hitting 20+ bombs and sparking a rejuvenated lineup that makes up for their inability to hold down opponents running games. Worst case scenario: AL pitching adjusts to Flowers, AJ swings at every pitch and hits .240, other teams steal about 200 bases against the Sox and you see alot of guys like Lillibridge and others behind the dish out of desperation.

Infielders

Gordon Beckham

Adam Dunn

Eduardo Escobar

Paul Konerko

Osvaldo Martinez

Brent Morel

Alexei Ramirez

I think the biggest worry here is Brent Morel. Here’s a young guy that came up to be the everyday third baseman, and did exactly what everyone said he would. He fielded well, he was a virtual automatic out at the plate. How again is this something the organization was okay with? Obviously, there’s got to be the expectation that Morel will eventually hit. He’s a young guy, so time will tell. It’s interesting though – he doesn’t seem to possess amazing bat speed, he doesn’t seem to hit any one pitch exceptionally well, he doesn’t seem to have a great ability to make contact, he doesn’t walk a lot. If Morel is going to produce, something has to change not just in the stat sheet, but in what his at bats look like to the eye.

I actually think Sox fans shouldn’t worry about the rest of the infield. Dunn cannot possibly be as bad as he was last year, and if he is, even for a few months, you could see him legitimately retiring as it would be the worst collapse in the history of professional sports. Konerko, ironically, has become of the most consistent producers in the game, and if he stays healthy it could be possible for him to hit another 30 HRs in the Cell. Alexei will be good, then terrible, then great, then terrible, and this has been good enough considering how much his glove helps the Sox throughout the season. As for Beckham — there’s a difference between him and Morel. He has the bat speed, he’s gone through stretches where he’s been great at the plate in the big leagues. He’s strong enough to have gap power, he’s fast and he’s young enough to regain his swagger. It’s true that in today’s day and age, Gordon probably doesn’t have any more chances with the Sox if he doesn’t produce this season. If he believes it though,  I think Beckham could get people on the South Side excited once again. Don’t be surprised to see him take a big step in 2012.

Outfielders

Oh my god

is this really 

the guys they are

trotting out there?

I had a tough time stomaching listing out the rostered players in the White Sox outfield. This time around, we’ve certainly saved the worst for last. Alex Rios, Fukudome, and a combination of Lillibridge, De Aza and Viciedo might make Sox optimists say “Well hey, Rios can bounce back, Fukudome is a good veteran presence who gets on base, and Viciedo has hit at every level! We should be okay here!”

Let me just say this: that isn’t nearly enough to be even an average MLB outfield. Now, the AL Central lacks any teams with an outfield that you’d want to write home about, but this particular group could potentially be really, really bad. Rios is just unreasonably bad for playing centerfield. It’s more than likely by the way he looks surprised at every pitch and every ball hit to him that he can’t see anything. That being said, I’m sure he’s also cheated on every eye test he’s ever taken in an effort to be lazy, unproductive, and a detriment to his team. I’ll say this again: Sox doctors, Rios almost definitely needs a new prescription.

As for the other guys, Fukudome works the count and is a reasonable right fielder. He can’t hit anyone with plus stuff, though, so if he’s hitting anything higher than 7th you know the lineup isn’t going to fare well. Lillibridge is a nice 4th outfielder type, but we’ve all seen what happens when he gets extended at bats. Viciedo is really the only hope that this group can be respectable. Can he hit for power enough to make up for his general inability to take pitches and get on base? Possibly – the Cell is friendly to guys like him. It’s going to be a lot to ask, though, and guys with his potential power and lack of discipline at the plate are spit out by MLB pitching more often than not.

Outlook

This bunch needs help. We didn’t even cover Peavy, Veal, new Manager Robin Ventura, or any of the other major question marks on this team because so much of what you’d have to consider their core group (just to field a team!) is a major question mark. The good news is that some of this stuff has to go right – my bet is look for Sale to Danks, Sale, Beckham, and Alexei to surprise on the good side. I’d be shocked, though, if anything but struggles were in store for Morel, Floyd, AJ/Flowers, and Rios. If Dunn hits 30+ HRs, expect this team to hang around .500 going into September, with the outside chance that they stay within 3-6 games of Detroit. If Dunn isn’t back to form though, expect these guys to be well out of the race by August, Dunn to be retired, a ton of these young arms on the 40-man finding their way into the rotation, Thornton to be moved and AJ as well (if he agreed).

Forecast

82-80, 3rd place.

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April 11, 2011

Lesson of the Week: Firm Frontside

Baseball Tonight’s Bobby Valentine loves to pull up the slow-mo camera on every single hit in the games he does, and rave about the hitter’s firm frontside. While this is a bit amusing after awhile, it is better than what the old color commentator used to do during Sunday Night games, which was usually talk about how he was better than Ryno or ask what direction the sun sets. In honor of Bobby & his slow-mo lens, I’ve decided to reprint our “firm frontside” lesson as the Lesson of the Week.

All hitters must swing into a firm frontside in order to achieve maximum bat speed, power, and consistency. The issue with this is that this begs the bigger question: “What is a firm frontside?”

Some initial clarifications are needed to decode this baseball speak. First, a “frontside” is the front leg of a hitter, from toe to hip. Second, “firm” refers to the characteristic of what this leg should exhibit at the point of impact. To imagine what this this looks like visually, it will look like a straight, locked out front leg at the point of impact. The “firm” aspect comes into play when you take into account that the hitter, during the impact portion of a swing, is thrusting all of their energy and weight into the front leg.

Basically, the front leg of the hitter should withstand the entire force of the body’s weight and energy, all the while bracing against this force and not buckling or giving out.

A final important note: this firm frontside only exists during actual contact. After contact, the front leg should resume flex (bend) and support a balanced finish.

So, now that there is some concept of what this term means, how can we teach hitters to exhibit it?

Thankfully, this is actually easier to teach than it is to explain. To teach a hitter to hit into a firm frontside, have the hitter take a couple of swings and make sure of the following:

At the finish of each swing, the head, back shoulder, torso, hips, and back thigh should all be aligned vertically. If this “tower” is standing tall and straight, that means that the hitter hit into a “firm frontside” and the weight transfer produced optimal power and speed. If the head, upper body, back shoulder or torso are not stacked vertically (i.e. leaning forward towards the pitcher or backwards towards the catcher), the frontside will not be “firm” upon impact.

If this “tower” is leaning towards the catcher, this means that the weight never transferred off of the back leg during impact, and therefore the front leg will probably be straightened – but not firm.

If this “tower” is leaning towards the catcher, the front leg will bend and give during the swing to accomodate this. You will clearly see the front knee buckle during the swing, and the batter’s head will be closer to the pitcher after the swing than when the swing started.

RECOMMENDED DRILLS – FIRM FRONTSIDE

1. Swing and Hold Drill

2. Tee Drill
Common Faults & Troubleshooting

1) “Tower” leaning back.

This is a hitter that is keeping a locked front leg at impact, but only because they are not transferring any weight off of the back leg during the swing. Have this type of hitter actually attempt to keep a bent front leg throughout the entire swing. This will force the hitter to balance their weight between both legs. What will typically result is a more proper weight transfer off of the back leg and into the firmer frontside.

2) “Tower” leaning forward.

This is a hitter that bends the front leg more during impact. This hitter will often lunge the upper body and head forward during this process. To help this type of hitter transfer the weight off of the back “into” the front leg instead of “over” the front leg, have the hitter force the front leg to “lock” during the swing. This will typically result in the hitter transferring weight as normal, but greatly improving the “firmness” of their front leg and the speed and power of the swing produced.

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April 8, 2011

Nishioka Injury & The State of the Takeout Slide

Sorry, I did not see any live baseball today – and I didn’t see the ‘news’ of the day in the MLB, Nishioka’s broken leg on a takeout slide by perennial fun guy (and also constant pain in the..) Nick Swisher. For those who were too busy getting their Masters fix like I was, check out:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110407&content_id=17493642&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Before condemning either Nishioka for being an idiot or Swisher for being a dirty player, let me just talk about how this play works in a little more detail than you might get from Sportscenter. So, the runner moving from 1st to 2nd on a ground ball is typically charged with attempting to “break up” a double play. This involves many things, including:

- running hard enough to get close to the base, even though you are a guaranteed out.

- sliding abnormally late and/or upright, in an attempt to scare the pivot man at second base off his feet earlier than he wants to be. The goal? To get a throw with less velocity & accuracy to first on a possible double play.

-  making the 1st baseman have to struggle to pick up the ball out of the pivot man’s hand by staying up as long as possible

Now, while the runner is doing all of this in an attempt to go after the defense – if not put them in physical danger – realize this:

- the pivot man usually lowers their arm angle, in an attempt to force the runner to avoid a throw &  slide sooner so that if they don’t, a baseball inflicts a fatal wound right through their skull!

SO while Swisher & the baserunners might end up being vilified for what happened in this game against the Twins, realize that in the end, the runner is actually only feigning attempted battery. Infielders are usually feigning attempted murder!

I don’t think either player is at fault – I think it was an unfortunate incident. I think part of the problem lies at the international levels of baseball as well as American amateur baseball. Usually, runners and fielders who end up injured in these types of plays are players who used to play overseas or at the amateur level. While some leagues have rules against base contact and some don’t, almost all of them have a general policy against contact with fielders during slide plays on the bases. I don’t think this really helps overall sport safety. I think this trains players to be unprepared for plays that are vital to the competitive nature of the sport played at it’s highest level. Guys who are ready for the contact at a base are very rarely injured – it is almost always something freak that causes one and it couldn’t have been avoided. Every other time, it is usually a player who’s been ill prepared for playing the game full board because of some rule like “no contact” at the bases – it causes bad habits & kills players’ awareness and instincts to things that they need to be ready for at the professional level.

Should 12 year old kids be taking each other out on double plays? Probably not. It isn’t because of the violence, however, it’s because of the great skill involved in breaking up a double play — youngsters don’t have that cognitive & neuro-muscular ability yet. 18 year olds & 25 year olds overseas though? You bet they do – especially if they are still playing competitively.

Amateur baseball doesn’t outlaw pitching inside, or on deck circles, or line drives, or throwing too hard, or infield pop ups, or all of the other things in baseball that could potentially lead to an injury. If they did, the sport would be worse off & the players would be worse off for not knowing how to handle those situations. The injuries that might be saved by having arbitrary rules around “safety” in the lower levels of baseball are surely made up for by the extra injuries that happen in the pro ranks once these unprepared players are thrown into situations foreign to them. Whatever the rules of the game are going to be, they should be the same from the MLB all the way down to varsity HS baseball. I hope that incidents like today help people realize that the system we have now does nothing more than create a false sense of overall player safety.

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April 3, 2011

Armchair Scouting Report: Starlin Castro

Hitting:

Balanced & fluid. Stance & load mimic’s Hanley Ramirez, although he’s cut down a bit on his load and holds his hands a bit closer to the body than the great Florida Marlin SS.  Great extension, one-hand release helps him keep the bat on plane very well. Unlikely to get beat by many fastballs – he’s got a quick bat and makes great contact for a young player. Doesn’t  hit deep into counts yet – puts the ball in play so well that usually if he swings, it’s hit hard and back through the middle.  Hits way more ground balls than flyballs, which works to his advantage & allows him to leg out many infield hits. Handles the high pitch well & blocks the inside pitch middle/oppo well enough to be an effective hit-and-run man right now. Must eventually learn to drive mistakes pull-side as he gets older to maximize his potential as a power hitter. He will have to become better at recognizing when he can guess and sit on pitches as well – right now it looks pretty obvious that he is simply in “see ball – hit ball” mode. The upside is that he hasn’t seen a pitch yet he can’t hit. He projects to be a premier 2 hitter in the NL, but with his speed and ability to make contact he could serve as an adequate leadoff man. If the utmost is realized from Castro’s ability, he could be a 3 hitter later on in his 20′s.

Fielding:

The range is exceptional – will even improve as his angles on balls to his right get better. Makes more rangy plays to his left it appears, which is  just a more athletic, less technique-dependent play. Castro’s arm is plus to plus-plus, just shy of a guy like Uribe, but better than Visquel’s or Jeter’s in their respective primes. Smooth with the glove with fast hands – not the best judge of balls off the bat yet, and plays himself into some tough hops because of it. Errors on routine balls are still too common for Castro, who’s defense improved over time in 2010 as he took over full time for Theriot. Looking at him today, it looks like Castro is making some strides but still doesn’t seem to be really reading the ball off the bat the way great shortstops do. A guy of Castro’s size, speed and arm strength should have more backhand plays to his credit by now – it will be interesting to see how his defense in the 5 1/2 hole shapes up throughout the year. Adequate to good on cuts & relays, but not totally game-changing. Of all the parts of Castro’s game that could improve as he grows up, it seems that the defense will be the toughest for him to achieve. He’s a natural athletic-phenom, but it may not be the case that he’s a born HOF defensive shortstop.

Baserunning:

Today’s game was an excellent example of some of the things Starlin could work on as he grows into a top-flight MLB shortstop. While legging out a triple he clearly had no idea whether or not he was going to stop at 2nd base until he was on top of it. His blinding speed around the bases was tapered quite a bit by dreadful, little-league like turns and full on slowdowns just to make it around the bases without falling. Despite the issues, he runs better than most MLB players right now, and he’s only going to get more use out of his speed as he learns to read pitchers, read defenders, and read his own ballpark.  It will be interesting to see if his fundamentals develop under Quade, who’s experience as a long-time 3rd base coach would indicate that he understands the importance of a guy like Castro learning his way around the bases. A big plus is that Castro hustles down the line every time, and is genuinely aggressive out of the box – looking to see if he can get to 2nd base on most every base hit. A potential 40+ SB guy that terrorizes opposing catchers and buys 3-hitters a ton of hittable fastballs if he stays in the 2 spot long term.

Overall:

Enormous upside. Already compared to Hanley Ramirez at 21 years old, he is on par with Hanley physically and could definitely blossom into a perennial MVP candidate in the NL. Barring injury, Castro’s worst-case scenario is probably only being – well, Starlin Castro of 2010, which wasn’t bad at all. The best case scenario? Likely a .300/.390/.500 guy one day who steals bases, has plus-range and plays in multiple All-Star games. He will need to become much better with the glove and routine plays in order to be a mainstay at SS, and if he does have one glaring weakness it is simply too few games played at a high level at the sport’s most demanding position. It will be at least 3-4 years before anyone will know if his crazy potential will be realized, but early indications have been that Castro is willing to work & improve his game – and his physical talent only looks to be getting better and better.

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April 2, 2011

Armchair Scouting Report: Marlon Byrd

Armchair Scouting Report is a post where I assess the strengths and weaknesses of a random big leaguer based upon observations from a typical telecast.

Today we take a look at the Chicago Cubs CF Marlon Byrd.

Hitting:

A bit of a pigeon toed stance.  Has a gameplan & takes situationally appropriate swings. Never appears confused by what pitchers try to do to him, which allows him to get on base alot more often than players with his natural ability level.  Hits like he’s playing pepper. Has a double pump-hitch move while loading hands that is jerky & reduces his power at the plate. While never caught lunging and rarely off balance, his weight rarely gets off his back foot – even when he drives the ball.  Gets away with this because he’s a good athlete & obviously strong. Sees the ball a long time & will swing to the situation in the game. His great eye hand coordination & middle/oppo approach helps make him a good hitter for average. Even his outs tend to be productive, rare for a Chicago Cub. You won’t see him roll over and roll out to SS or 3B with runners in scoring position very often. Tends to stay productive whether he is facing ace-level stuff or mop-up-men. Fights to stay inside the ball even though his bottom half often gets tied up due to his poor timing during the load phase of the swing. A hard worker who’s problems at the plate only arise when he’s trying too hard to fight his way back into a groove. Has a bit of the Ryan Theriot disease – his back shoulder can sometimes dip too much when he tries forcing the ball the other way instead of turning on pitches hard & inside. Byrd forces pitchers to move the ball around the plate and throw strikes with multiple speeds – he doesn’t kill any particular location or speed, but he has no obvious weakness to attack again and again.

Fielding:

A good defensive CF with some of the best instincts in the league. A heady player – rarely caught out of position and plays his scouting reports to a T. Not a burner but runs well defensively. Excellent body & glove control – makes diving and sliding catches routinely, which makes him play a step faster than he is.  Throws accurately & with confidence. Not afraid to take a shot behind runners to catch a player taking too hard a turn. Sometimes trusts his arm a little too much, but his head usually allows him to make the right play. Always hustles and makes up for an abomination of a defender in Soriano in left field. Sometimes misses a few balls in front of him and to his left because he’s overly conscious to cover up the Soriano-side gap. He looks even better when surrounded by Colvin & Fukadome.

Baserunning:

Similar characterstics on the base paths – probably plays a half step faster than his clock times would indicate. Runs aggressively & but will only attempt to steal a base from time to time. Not going to win you a ton of games with his threats to steal, but he might win you one or two with his sound ability to go 1st to 3rd and score from 2nd on a hit. Plays within himself, but gives you whatever he has from game to game. He’s not the guy who will lose you anything out on the bases, and he definitely doesn’t clog anything up out there.

Overall:

An all-around quality player in the big leagues that will help his team win more games than his numbers will indicate. Guys like Byrd help make bad teams into respectable ones and good teams into contenders. You have to wonder if Byrd could be/have been more of a true run producing threat at the plate – especially with his strength and athleticism. That being said, he’s a guy who can hit anywhere in the lineup, is capable against nasty fireballers and meat alike. His team-first mentality makes his lineup better and you certainly can’t complain about a guy who can be .285/.340/.440 every year when he plays as well defensively as Byrd does. It’d be interesting to see what could happen to him if he decided to try something more of a Chipper Jones-esque toe-tap and a longer swing finish, but even if he stays the way he is, he’s gonna continue to be a player who’s value exceeds his contract.

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April 1, 2011

Armchair Scouting Report: Pablo Sandoval

Welcome to the 2011 season! I’ve decided to recommit to making the ASR a bit of daily fun this baseball season. Okay, it isn’t because of the fun — it’s because I need something to take my mind off of any rogue Blake DeWitt at bats that enter my periphery. Who gets the honor of the first Armchair Report? Hello Panda!

Strengths:

You gotta point out initially that he’s in better shape. He has tremendous eye hand coordination – reminiscent of Randall Simon.  Probably will keep this the entirety of his career. A natural athlete that hasn’t even tapped into what his potential could be.  Loose & fluid hands allow for a quick bat that generates pop to all fields. For being a free swinger, has calm & quiet actions in the load/hitting position.  Runs better than what his size & body type let on — tends to sneak up on the other team & can stretch a double into a triple. Doesn’t hit into too many double plays considering his penchant for free-swinging. Has seen adversity & success in the big leagues, which should give him the mentality of being able to succeed at the highest level. Can bunt & bunt for a hit – which helps his average and reduces the GDP numbers. Defense is not terrible and generally doesn’t hold him back from being in the lineup on a day to day basis.

Weaknesses:

His load finishes with a hitch before unleashing his violent swing. This causes inconsistent timing.  Can’t keep his chin over front shoulder very often. For a guy who’s generally quiet and fundamental from the waist down, his upper body swing components are still raw and rely on God-given ability.  He has lower strikeout numbers for a man with his power, but it’s mostly because he flails at pitches just to make poor contact. Needs to be able to help his team situationally at the plate more than he does today – his great eye hand coordination is used more to bloop balls to right field & pop up to middle infielders than it does to actually execute successfully. His free-swinging is reminiscent of Vladmir Guerrero, but without the generation-dominating ability to back it up. He will have to become either much more selective at the plate or much more dangerous against offspeed pitches if he plans on being an All-Star for any years to come in the NL.

Overall:

For Pablo’s sake,  I hope he is a student of Aubrey Huff and not Pat Burrell while playing in San Fran. Pablo is still very young and if he’s truly committed, I’m sure he can find a place in a contending team’s lineup year to year. A man with his eye-hand coordination needs to learn to maximize it more than just making any-old contact. If he learns to get ahead in the count, jump only on fastballs 0-0 and not every pitch thrown his way, he might have another amazing season or two left in him. If he only gets marginally better over his career, my guess is that his career numbers will end up looking alot like Juan Uribe’s.

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